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Daily Journal archiveInvestment Chronicles Issue 10
Read articleHow We Learned to Stop Worrying and Love Bankruptcy
Read articleTurn On, Clock In, Clock Out
Read articleAction to Take: Sell Half of Sagimet Biosciences
Read articleWhere Are They Now?
Read articleThis Is Spinal Tap
Read articleSkin In The Game
Read articleProfiting From the Remote-Learning Boom
Read articleThe Big Biotech Rebound
Read articleBiotechnology Guidebook
Read articleWe Told You So…
Read articleHow Marty Fridson Picks Top Stocks
Read articleThe big story this month was the apparent policy “pivot” from the Federal Reserve. At its latest Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting on December 13, Fed officials signaled a likely end to its aggressive rate-hiking campaign and projected it would likely cut interest rates three times in 2024 (from The Wall Street Journal)…
Read articleFutures markets quickly became even more “dovish” than the Fed, pricing in up to six interest rate cuts next year (From Jim Bianco via X)…
Read articleInvestors broadly cheered the news as positive for both the economy and risk assets. However, history suggests caution is warranted. Going back to at least the 1950s, Fed pivots have been highly correlated with rising unemployment (from The Kobeissi Letter via X)…
Read articleOver the same period, Fed pivots have also generally been bearish for stocks over the intermediate term. This has been particularly true following aggressive cycles when inflation has been high, stock market valuations have been extreme, and corporate and consumer debt burdens have been elevated – all of which are true today (from Michael A. Gayed, CFA via X)…
Read articleMeanwhile, this policy shift is occurring with headline consumer price inflation still well above the Fed’s official target, setting the stage for a sharp potential rebound like that which occurred in the late 1970s (from Torsten Slok via The Daily Spark)…
Read articleEvery recession looks like a “soft landing” initially (from Win Smart, CFA via X)…
Read articleData suggest corporate revenue has peaked (from Albert Edwards via X)…
Read articleHere’s a contrarian look at “liquidity” (from Alf via X)…
Read articleThe effects of the Fed’s aggressive tightening cycle are likely only now beginning to be felt (from Otavio Costa via X)…
Read articleGovernment money printing is creating a “cost of living crisis” (from Sam Callahan via X)…
Read articleA simple three-step framework from one of the most successful investors you’ve never heard of (from Kyle Grieve via X)…
Read article