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Daily Journal archiveWhen Recession Strikes, Distressed Pickings Rise
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Read articleThe big story this month was the continued rise in long-term U.S. Treasury yields. The yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury note just touched 5% this week for the first time since before the Great Financial Crisis (from Bloomberg)…
Read articleHowever, unlike the rise in Treasury yields earlier this year, this recent rise isn’t due primarily to expectations of higher short-term rates (i.e., the Federal Reserve). Rather, in recent months, yields have been rising due to expectations of higher inflation (from Bloomberg via ZeroHedge)…
Read article… as well as rising “term premium” – a measure of the added compensation investors demand for holding longer-duration debt – as a result of out-of-control government deficits (from Jurrien Timmer via X)…
Read articleUnfortunately for equity investors, higher yields make stocks relatively less attractive. As you can see below, the “equity risk premium” – a measure of the difference between the expected return in stocks and the risk-free rate of return in Treasuries – has fallen to its lowest levels in decades (from The Daily Shot via X)…
Read articleIn fact, by some measures, stocks are near their most expensive level versus bonds in the past 100 years. Previous extremes have led stocks to underperform bonds over the next decade, even if bonds themselves produced poor real (after inflation) returns (from Hussman Strategic Advisors)…
Read articleRising interest rates mean deficits finally matter (from The Wall Street Journal on October 5)…
Read articleRising rates are beginning to weigh on corporate profits (from The Financial Times on October 5)…
Read articleWhy the BRICS nations – Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa – don’t need a single currency to disrupt the global financial system (from Luke Gromen via FFTT Tree Rings on October 6)…
Read articleThe latest jobs report was not as positive as it appeared (from E.J. Antoni, Ph.D. via X on October 6)…
Read articleIs this the “secret weapon” behind the resilient U.S. economy? (from The Wall Street Journal on October 8)…
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