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Read articleThe big story this month was the deteriorating fiscal health of the U.S. government. Total federal debt crossed $33 trillion for the first time in September – representing a massive $1.6 trillion increase (18.5% annualized) since Congress lifted the debt ceiling just a few months ago (from Charlie Bilello via X)…
Read articleThis rise in debt is being fueled by the government’s soaring budget deficit, which is currently the largest in history as a percentage of gross domestic product (GDP) outside of wartime or recession (from BofA Global Research/The Kobeissi Letter via X)…
Read articleThe largest share of this spending goes toward entitlements, which currently account for more than 100% of the “revenue” the government brings in through taxes. However, the sharp rise in interest rates since early 2022 has caused the government’s interest expense to surge from around 20% of tax receipts up to nearly 33% today (from Dylan LeClair via X)…
Read articleThe government’s interest expense – and therefore deficits – could quickly spiral even higher as the U.S. Treasury is forced to “refinance” nearly one-third of its existing debt at vastly higher interest rates over the next 12 months (from the U.S. Treasury/BEA/Haver Analytics via The Daily Spark)…
Read articleAnd this dire situation doesn’t include the very real possibility that the economy enters a recession in the months ahead. Historically, recessions alone have caused a dramatic increase in deficits and total debt as a percentage of GDP (from Dylan LeClair via X)…
Read articleA look at the performance of major asset classes over the past 200-plus years (from Markets & Mayhem via X on September 2)…
Read article