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View all articlesInvestment Chronicles Issue 20
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Read articleThe big story in January was the dramatic resurgence of investors’ “animal spirits” following the Federal Reserve’s apparent policy pivot last month. This shift ushered in the fastest easing of financial conditions on record (from BofA Global Research/Barchart via X)…
Read articleSurveys show professional investors are once again extremely bullish, with sentiment surpassing even the peak of the previous bull market in 2021 (from Consensus/Jim Bianco via X)…
Read articleData suggest Individual investors are even more bullish, with 80% of respondents expecting the broad market to end the year higher. By this measure, mom-and-pop investors are more bullish than they’ve been anytime since March 2007, nearly a year before the Great Financial Crisis began (from Yale School of Management via Yahoo Finance)…
Read articleMeanwhile, the CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) – the market’s “fear gauge” – has continued to fall. It is now trading at its lowest levels since before the COVID-19 crash – and near its lowest levels on record – suggesting investors are historically complacent today (from The Next Economy)…
Read articleThis recent surge in bullish sentiment has coincided with similar shifts in market positioning. For example, “non-dealer” – i.e., all investors excluding market makers – long positions in market index futures has surged to all-time highs (from Daily Chartbook/Jesse Felder via X)…
Read articleThis is what it would take to see a repeat of the past decade’s extraordinary stock-market returns (from AQR)…
Read articleThe Federal Reserve reportedly has “no plans” to extend its emergency bank lending program when it expires in March (from MarketWatch)…
Read articleIn the meantime, banks have reportedly been gaming the BTFP program for profit (from The Wall Street Journal)…
Read articleA sharp decline in the money supply – like we’ve seen over the past couple years – has historically always caused problems (from Jesse Felder via X)…
Read articleHere’s another reason inflation could prove “stickier” than the consensus currently expects (from E-piphany)…
Read articleWhy stock market volatility could move higher again soon (from The Next Economy)…
Read articleInflation has been particularly burdensome for food prices (from Barchart via X)…
Read articleThese are the “keys” to watch for during the upcoming U.S. presidential election (from The Variant Perception)…
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