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Read articleThe big story this month was the deteriorating fiscal health of the U.S. government. Total federal debt crossed $33 trillion for the first time in September – representing a massive $1.6 trillion increase (18.5% annualized) since Congress lifted the debt ceiling just a few months ago (from Charlie Bilello via X)…
Read articleThis rise in debt is being fueled by the government’s soaring budget deficit, which is currently the largest in history as a percentage of gross domestic product (GDP) outside of wartime or recession (from BofA Global Research/The Kobeissi Letter via X)…
Read articleThe largest share of this spending goes toward entitlements, which currently account for more than 100% of the “revenue” the government brings in through taxes. However, the sharp rise in interest rates since early 2022 has caused the government’s interest expense to surge from around 20% of tax receipts up to nearly 33% today (from Dylan LeClair via X)…
Read articleThe government’s interest expense – and therefore deficits – could quickly spiral even higher as the U.S. Treasury is forced to “refinance” nearly one-third of its existing debt at vastly higher interest rates over the next 12 months (from the U.S. Treasury/BEA/Haver Analytics via The Daily Spark)…
Read articleAnd this dire situation doesn’t include the very real possibility that the economy enters a recession in the months ahead. Historically, recessions alone have caused a dramatic increase in deficits and total debt as a percentage of GDP (from Dylan LeClair via X)…
Read articleA look at the performance of major asset classes over the past 200-plus years (from Markets & Mayhem via X on September 2)…
Read articleThe U.S. government has officially entered into “fiscal madness” (from First Trust Economics Blog on September 5)…
Read articleBig tech is more expensive relative to the broad market than it has been in years (from Jesse Felder via X on September 6)…
Read articleWalmart’s recent pay cuts suggest the jobs market is softening (from The Wall Street Journal on September 7)…
Read articleAn update on the correlation between stocks and bonds (from Verdad Weekly Research on September 11)…
Read articleThe record spread between 30-year mortgage rates and the 30-year U.S. Treasury yield could be a bearish signal for stocks (from C. Scott Garliss via X on September 11)…
Read articleToday’s near-record high market valuations suggest that stocks could suffer dramatic losses if inflation remains sticky (from Bloomberg on September 11)…
Read articleU.S. consumers’ post-COVID “excess savings” have nearly run out (from Matthew Miskin, CFA via X on September 11)…
Read articleU.S. imports from Mexico have officially surpassed those from China for the first time in decades (from Brent Donnelly via X on September 12)…
Read articleGoldman Sachs warns of three upcoming “hits” to the economy this year (from Joe Weisenthal via X on September 12)…
Read articleShort interest in stocks and exchange-traded funds (ETFs) continues to fall to multi-year lows (from Deutsche Bank Research via The Daily Shot on September 14)…
Read articleThis labor market indicator suggests inflation remains a problem (from Otavio Costa via X on September 14)…
Read articleA tell-tale sign of exuberance in artificial intelligence (AI) (from Peter Atwater via X on September 14)…
Read articleThis pandemic program has been handing out billions of dollars in bogus tax credits for years. The IRS may finally be shutting it down (from The Wall Street Journal on September 14)…
Read article“Picking up dimes in front of a bulldozer”: A new ETF looks to capitalize on the popularity of zero-day options (from Reuters on September 14)…
Read articleThe labor market is showing recessionary signs beneath the surface (from the Economic Cycle Research Institute on September 15)..
Read articleThe “Great Moderation” is over: Why the low-inflation, low-volatility environment of the past few decades probably isn’t coming back (from Liz Ann Sonders and Kevin Gordon at Charles Schwab on September 18)…
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